August 26, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller

Every late August, the red carpet stretches across the Lido like a welcome mat for the season to come. The Venice Film Festival isn’t just a showcase. It’s a signal. For decades, films that launched here found themselves echoing months later on Oscar night. Roma, Nomadland, Poor Things. The list of Venice discoveries that turned into awards juggernauts keeps growing.

That’s why the 82nd Venice Film Festival matters. It’s not just cinephiles packing screenings. It’s publicists, strategists, and Academy voters quietly circling names. The lineup this year has the kind of depth that gets people saying “best in years.” That is a polite way of admitting that half the Best Picture slate might already be here.

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Venice as a Precursor
What makes Venice unique among fall festivals is its balance: prestige auteurs and bold debuts, glamour and grit. Unlike Cannes, it doesn’t need to fight for world premieres in May. It thrives on the timing. Late summer gives films just enough runway to build momentum without peaking too early.

The Oscars have mirrored this rhythm. The Shape of Water and Birdman both won Best Picture after bowing in Venice. Even when the Golden Lion winner itself doesn’t go all the way (Happening, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed), the festival still sends a handful of films into heavy rotation across critics’ groups and guild awards.

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The Slate is Stacked
This year is loaded with names that carry Venice history and Oscar weight. Yorgos Lanthimos brings Bugonia with Emma Stone in a sharp sci-fi fable about power. Guillermo del Toro arrives with Frankenstein, led by Oscar Isaac, a gothic reimagining with real heart. Kathryn Bigelow returns with A House of Dynamite, starring Idris Elba and Greta Lee, a high-stakes political thriller. Jim Jarmusch has Father Mother Sister Brother with Cate Blanchett and Adam Driver, three linked stories with quiet emotional punch. Paolo Sorrentino opens the festival with The Grace.

There is depth behind the headliners. Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly pairs George Clooney and Adam Sandler for a road story about fame and fallout. László Nemes is back with Orphan, a post-1956 Hungarian drama. Ildikó Enyedi screens Silent Friend, moody and precise. Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice plays corporate mind games. Olivier Assayas tackles power and politics in The Wizard of the Kremlin with Jude Law.

The list keeps going. Kaouther Ben Hania presents The Voice of Hind Rajab, urgent and human. Gianfranco Rosi’s Below the Clouds captures Naples in black and white. Pietro Marcello’s Duse explores a screen legend. Leonardo Di Costanzo’s Elisa brings tense, grounded drama. Valérie Donzelli offers A Pied D’Oeuvre, intimate and personal. Shu Qi debuts as director with Girl, a delicate coming-of-age story. Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine puts Dwayne Johnson in a serious transformation as Mark Kerr. François Ozon’s The Stranger looks elegant and layered. Cai Shangjun’s The Sun Rises on Us All carries moral weight. Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee turns history into a musical with Amanda Seyfried. Franco Maresco’s Un film fatto per Bene plays with the line between art and meltdown.

That blend is why this year feels heavier than usual. You have past Oscar winners and nominees in the mix, big ensemble casts, studio and streamer plays, and bold swings that can light up critics. The bench is deep across the board, so Venice could send several films straight into the center of the awards race.

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My Predictions
I don’t just follow the mainstream odds. Most years I agree with the consensus, but part of what I love about Venice is trusting my gut when a film grabs me in a different way. These are bold picks, a mix of head and heart, and I’m planting my flag before the first screening rolls.

• Golden Lion: No Other Choice (dir. Park Chan-wook)
• Grand Jury Prize (2nd): The Testament of Ann Lee (dir. Mona Fastvold)
• Special Jury Prize (3rd): Jay Kelly (dir. Noah Baumbach)
• Silver Lion for Director: Mona Fastvold for The Testament of Ann Lee
• Coppa Volpi Best Actress: Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee
• Coppa Volpi Best Actor: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for The Smashing Machine
  • The boldest swing. Johnson transforms into Mark Kerr, and if Venice embraces it, this could be the breakout acting story of the year.
• Best Screenplay: Will Tracy for Bugonia
  • Lanthimos’ collaborator crafts a biting, witty script that blends satire with sci-fi precision.

Venice isn’t just opening a festival tomorrow. It’s cracking open awards season. By the time the closing night fireworks fade over the lagoon, we’ll know which films are headed straight into the heart of the Oscar race.

For more coverage, read all of my 2025 Venice Film Festival articles here.

Those are my predictions. What are yours? Reply on X @OscarObsessADHD or join the conversation on today’s Instagram post @OscarObsessedADHD.  

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