August 14, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller

In the past decade, four Best Picture winners began their Oscar journey on a red carpet floating in the Venice lagoon. From August 27 to September 6, 2025, the 82nd Venice Film Festival will once again draw the industry’s gaze to the Lido for 11 days of premieres, standing ovations, and the occasional scandal. As the world’s oldest film festival, Venice stands as a regal herald to awards season, perched at the edge of summer and the brink of our expectations.

Venice doesn’t just open awards season — it fires the starting gun. Here, films arrive as unknown contenders and leave as Oscar frontrunners. With its timing, prestige, and uncanny track record, the Lido has become the launchpad for campaigns that dominate the months ahead. And for the next two weeks, every premiere will be chasing that same golden path.

---

Venice’s Track Record
Year after year, Venice has quietly brokered wins for a wildly diverse slate of Best Picture champions. Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland all premiered in competition at Venice. Spotlight screened out of competition—yet still left with the kind of critical momentum that awards campaigns dream about.

Each arrived on the Lido with something that would carry it all the way to Oscar glory—whether it was a single-take cinematic dare (Birdman), a vérité newsroom exposé (Spotlight), a fantastical aquatic romance (The Shape of Water), or a meditative road odyssey (Nomadland).

---

“The Venice Effect” – Myth or Magic?
Every Oscar year has its conspiracy theories. In Venice, they just call it the lineup.

• The Myth: Win the Golden Lion and you’ve basically got a seat at the Dolby Theatre on Oscar night.

• The Reality: Sure, The Shape of Water pulled off the double win — but Roma and Joker were Golden Lion champs who lost Best Picture, while The Room Next Door barely made it to the Globes.

• The Real Power Move: Sometimes it’s not about winning Venice at all. Birdman didn’t take the Golden Lion, but its in-competition premiere left critics in rapture, distributors on speed dial, and momentum that never slowed. Spotlight wasn’t even in competition — it screened out of competition in 2015 — yet it still walked away with the kind of critical buzz that carried it to Best Picture. And sometimes, even a runner-up prize is enough to light the fuse: The Brutalist only took the Silver Lion, but that launch turned into 10 Oscar nominations and 3 wins.

• Translation for 2025: The real “Venice winners” might be the films that leave with the loudest chatter, not the heaviest trophy. Keep your eyes on standing ovations, bidding wars, and critics’ group swoons — that’s where the Oscar seeds are planted.

This just goes to show how unpredictable the Venice-to-Oscars trajectory can be.

---

What this year’s competition looks like
This year’s Venice lineup is stacked — world premieres from Yorgos Lanthimos, Noah Baumbach, Guillermo del Toro, Jim Jarmusch, Kathryn Bigelow, Park Chan-wook, and more, all chasing the Golden Lion.

But Venice isn’t just about the films in competition. Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt opens the festival out of competition — ineligible for the Golden Lion, but still primed for awards-season heat. Remember Spotlight? It premiered here in 2015 out of competition and still went on to win Best Picture. After the Hunt could be this year’s version of that sleeper scenario: a Venice debut that owns the conversation without taking home a festival trophy.

Here’s your insider snapshot of the 21 world premieres vying for the Golden Lion — and the films that might ride the Venice wave straight into the Oscar race:

• Below the Clouds (dir. Gianfranco Rosi)
— Rosi turns his camera toward Naples in a striking black-and-white documentary, capturing the city’s textures and rhythms with his trademark intimacy. It’s personal, observational filmmaking — the kind of work Venice juries have a history of embracing.

• Bugonia (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos)
— Lanthimos reteams with Emma Stone who plays a kidnapped CEO in this sharp-edged sci-fi fable about power, greed, and the absurdity of modern life.

• Duse (dir. Pietro Marcello)
— Marcello turns his lens on legendary actress Eleonora Duse, weaving past and present into a cinematic portrait that feels both intimate and grand—exactly the kind of layered storytelling Venice audiences devour.

• Elisa (dir. Leonardo Di Costanzo)
— Di Costanzo delivers a tense, socially rooted drama that pulls its weight through sharp observation and emotional undercurrents. It may not be built for mass appeal, but its authenticity and craft could make it a quiet standout at Venice.

• Father Mother Sister Brother (dir. Jim Jarmusch)
— Jarmusch sends Cate Blanchett and Adam Driver across continents in an interconnected trio of stories, blending deadpan humor and quiet emotional weight in a way only he can.

• Frankenstein (dir. Guillermo del Toro)
— Del Toro reimagines Mary Shelley’s classic with his signature mix of lush gothic visuals and aching humanity, led by Oscar Isaac in a role that could haunt audiences — and awards voters — long after Venice.

• Girl (dir. Shu Qi)
— Shu Qi, the face of Taiwanese cinema for decades, steps behind the camera with a delicate coming-of-age set in 1988. Girl follows an introverted child whose quiet world is cracked open by a new friendship and a mother’s painful history. A debut that’s as emotionally precise as it is poised—a Venice world premiere that feels like the season’s first signal flare for Best Picture buzz.

• The Grace (dir. Paolo Sorrentino)
— Venice opens with Sorrentino’s trademark blend of visual grandeur and emotional sweep — a first-night flourish that sets the tone for the festival’s red-carpet spectacle.

• A House of Dynamite (dir. Kathryn Bigelow)
— Bigelow returns with a high-stakes political thriller starring Idris Elba and Greta Lee, weaving tension, power plays, and real-world resonance into the kind of precision filmmaking that can grip both critics and voters.

• Jay Kelly (dir. Noah Baumbach)
— Baumbach pairs George Clooney and Adam Sandler for a cross-country story about fame, fallout, and second chances — the kind of character-driven drama that could give Netflix a serious shot in the awards race.

• No Other Choice (dir. Park Chan‑wook)
— Park swaps romantic thrillers for boardroom mind games, crafting a sleek, sinister corporate drama laced with his signature visual precision and sly humor. If it lands, it could be one of the year’s most stylish curveballs.

• Orphan (dir. Laszlo Nemes)
— Nemes returns with a post‑’56 Hungarian drama, following a boy who finally meets the man claiming to be his father. At once historical and deeply personal, it carries the kind of emotional weight that could haunt Venice long after the Lido lights dim.

• A Pied D’Oeuvre (dir. Valérie Donzelli)
— Donzelli offers a quietly personal French drama, built on sharp character beats and an intimate tone. It may never aim for the spotlight, but Venice has a history of championing singular voices like this.

• Silent Friend (dir. Ildikó Enyedi)
— Enyedi returns with a moody, deliberate piece that blends her signature lyrical style with an undercurrent of mystery. A slow burn for cinephiles, it could still leave a lasting mark on the festival.

• The Smashing Machine (dir. Benny Safdie)
— Safdie trades New York grit for the MMA cage, with Dwayne Johnson disappearing into the role of fighter Mark Kerr. Equal parts bruising sports drama and intimate character study, it’s the kind of transformation that could punch through festival chatter into awards contention.

• The Stranger (dir. François Ozon)
— Ozon delivers a layered drama wrapped in mystery, balancing elegance with emotional bite. If it connects, it could quietly build the kind of word-of-mouth that lingers long after the festival lights fade.

• The Sun Rises on Us All (dir. Cai Shangjun)
— Cai delivers an unflinching drama steeped in moral complexity, pairing intimate character work with a larger social lens. If it resonates, it could emerge as one of Venice’s under-the-radar powerhouses.

• The Testament of Ann Lee (dir. Mona Fastvold)
— Fastvold turns the story of Shaker founder Ann Lee into a full-blown musical, with Amanda Seyfried leading an offbeat, richly theatrical vision. It’s the kind of risk-taking, genre-blending swing that can either polarize or completely charm Venice audiences.

• The Testament of Ann Lee (dir. Mona Fastvold)
— Fastvold turns the story of Shaker founder Ann Lee into a full-blown musical, with Amanda Seyfried leading an offbeat, richly theatrical vision. It’s the kind of risk-taking, genre-blending swing that can either polarize or completely charm Venice audiences.

• The Voice of Hind Rajab (dir. Kaouther Ben Hania)
— Ben Hania brings a harrowing real-life story to the screen, fusing investigative urgency with intimate storytelling. It’s the kind of politically charged, deeply human work that can stop a festival audience cold.

• The Wizard of the Kremlin (dir. Olivier Assayas)
— Assayas dives into Putin-era politics with Jude Law in the lead, blending personal intrigue and geopolitical drama. If the execution matches the premise, this could be one of Venice’s most talked-about power plays.

• Un film fatto per Bene (dir. Franco Maresco)
— Maresco turns the camera on himself—or rather, his failed film about avant-garde icon Carmelo Bene—in a meta-documentary that blurs the lines between art and meltdown. With accusations of “filmicide,” a cast of collaborators turned witnesses, and an investigation into what went wrong, it’s Venice-ready in tone, attitude, and festival fire.

---

Two weeks before the Lido welcomes its first guests, every film in competition is loaded with potential. Venice doesn’t whisper trends—it broadcasts them through festival politics, campaign construction, and early award-season signal-scanning. Whether they decorate Oscar night or just spark conversation, these films are your preview for the war—the Venice-to-Oscars war—that starts now.
         
From The Lido to the Dolby, we’ll be following the festival’s breakout titles — and the industry chess matches that follow. If you missed the knockout on The Smashing Machine or our look at Netflix’s Oscar Strategy, catch up now to see how those stories could evolve this season.

Which film do you think will walk away with the Golden Lion at this year’s Venice Film Festival? Reply on X @OscarObsessADHD or join the conversation on today’s Instagram post @OscarObsessedADHD.

---