September 4, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller

The 50th Toronto International Film Festival opens today and runs through September 14. For half a century TIFF has been where audiences decide what lands with staying power. With Venice still handing out its Golden Lion and Telluride fresh in people’s minds, Toronto steps into the spotlight as the place where premieres and holdovers collide. At least one will leave with the People’s Choice Award, a ticket that almost always leads to Oscar night. Here’s what’s on my radar before the curtain goes up.

The Headline Premieres

Rental Family
Hikari’s Rental Family follows an American actor navigating Tokyo’s subculture of “rental families,” where strangers are hired to play spouses, children, or friends. The film mixes biting satire with heartfelt drama, and it comes to Toronto with the strongest buzz of any premiere. My early prediction: this is the one to take home the People’s Choice Award.

Hedda
Directed by Nia DaCosta, Hedda reimagines Henrik Ibsen’s classic play Hedda Gabler. Tessa Thompson stars as Hedda, a newly married woman suffocated by domestic expectations who lashes out with manipulative and destructive choices. The adaptation promises an intense character study and a showcase performance, making it one of TIFF’s most intriguing world premieres.

The Lost Bus
The Lost Bus dramatizes the real-life ordeal of a group of schoolchildren and their driver stranded in the Nevada desert. It’s about survival, leadership, and community under pressure. Beyond being an audience tear-jerker, the subject matter could resonate more than usual with Academy voters given the devastating California wildfires dominating the news cycle. That timeliness may give this small-scale drama unexpected weight in the awards race.

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Rian Johnson’s third Benoit Blanc outing sees Daniel Craig return to the franchise with a fresh ensemble and a gothic-tinged whodunit. While TIFF audiences are guaranteed to turn out in force, the awards impact will probably stop at screenplay. That would mark Johnson’s third Oscar nomination as a writer, but it’s unlikely to extend further.

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Carrying Over Buzz from Venice & Telluride

Hamnet
Chloé Zhao, Oscar-winning director of Nomadland, adapts Maggie O’Farrell’s celebrated novel about Shakespeare’s wife Agnes and their son Hamnet. Venice critics praised its sweeping emotion and lyrical detail. Zhao returns to Toronto as an Oscar-winning director whose last festival hit became a Best Picture winner. That shadow looms large.

The Testament of Ann Lee
Already a conversation starter at Venice, The Testament of Ann Lee drew attention for its bold and uncompromising style. Some have compared its ambition to The Brutalist, and now TIFF will reveal whether it can ignite the same kind of momentum.

The Ballad of a Small Player
Lawrence Osborne’s novel gets a lush adaptation, following a British gambler adrift in Macau. What makes this one stand out is the cast: Oscar nominee Colin Farrell, Oscar winner Tilda Swinton, and a supporting lineup with pedigree. Coming off the success of All Quiet on the Western Front and the buzz around Conclave, all eyes are on whether it plays as prestige drama or just another gambler’s tale.

The Smashing Machine
Benny Safdie directs Dwayne Johnson in the true story of MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Johnson strips away the blockbuster persona for a raw performance that stunned Telluride audiences. I’m still holding to the long-shot prediction that he could take the Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice. For now, this one is simply knocking it out at every festival stop.

Christy
Though its premiere was back at Berlin, Christy is still a key player here. Mary Harron directs Sydney Sweeney in a drama set against New York’s art scene. Right now, most people don’t see Christy as a serious contender, but I think it’s ready to get in the ring. This could be the film that punches above its weight, and Sweeney’s performance could even earn her a Rising Star nomination at the BAFTAs. It’s a line-in-the-sand role that might surprise those expecting her to stay on the sidelines.

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The People’s Choice Stakes
The TIFF People’s Choice Award has become one of the most consistent bellwethers in cinema. Over the past 20 years:

• Five winners went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland.
• Nearly every winner since 2008 has secured a Best Picture nomination.
• The only wrinkle: last year’s winner The Life of Chuck was delayed and moved to this season, leaving the streak in question. If it’s nominated at the upcoming Oscars, the rule holds. If not, it marks the first true break in more than a decade.

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My early predictions going into opening night:
• Rental Family – Strongest audience magnet, and my pick for the prize.
• Christy – Sweeney’s breakthrough potential makes it a legitimate runner-up threat.
• The Smashing Machine – Johnson’s raw turn could carry the energy from Venice into Toronto and surprise in the top three.

The Lost Bus and Hamnet sit just outside the podium but could still push through if the emotional response or critical acclaim hits hard enough.

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Why Toronto’s 50th Edition Matters

Venice may crown the critics’ darling, but TIFF has always been about what resonates with audiences. That’s why films like La La Land, Room, and The Imitation Game became household names after playing here. The fact that Nomadland remains the only film to ever win both TIFF’s People’s Choice and Venice’s Golden Lion shows just how rare crossover dominance really is.

This year’s lineup has the potential to test that again. If another Venice breakout repeats in Toronto, it will prove Nomadland wasn’t just a one-off. If not, TIFF will once again show that audiences here beat to their own rhythm.

That’s my early TIFF 2025 People’s Choice predictions. What’s on your list? Drop your predictions on X @OscarObsessADHD or join the conversation on today’s Instagram post @OscarObsessedADHD.