Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Who Wins When Battle Meets Sinners?
Will Sunday repeat the Critics’ Choice snubs – or flip the whole race?
January 11, 2026 | Lisa Hatzenbeller
Tomorrow night, the Golden Globes are kicking off and we’re headed into the second big test of the season – and it’s already shaping up to be a showdown. One Battle After Another walks in with nine nominations, Sinners follows with seven, and both are about to find out whether the Critics’ Choice snubs were a warning shot or a fluke. Will Battle get shut out of the acting categories again? Will Sinners land the upset it keeps flirting with? If the Globes get weird (and they usually do), which categories are most likely to flip?
If you like order and predictability, Sunday night might not be for you. The Globes love supplying the chaos we secretly enjoy.
For anyone not living in awards season, the Globes split Drama and Musical/Comedy for Picture and Lead Acting, while Supporting stays combined like the Oscars. It makes predicting the acting races a lot trickier than it looks.
The Big Film Fights
We’ll start with the film categories. They’re the backbone of the night and the clearest look at how this race could break open.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another
This is the easiest call of the night. One Battle After Another is the consensus favorite, and I don’t see a world where it doesn’t take the trophy. Marty Supreme is a strong film and a major moment for Timothée Chalamet’s awards trajectory, but it’s not overtaking Battle here.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Predicted Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
KPop Demon Hunters has been the projected favorite all season. Zootopia 2 has the commercial edge, but I don’t see that translating with this voting body. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle made a late-season push, but not enough to threaten KPop’s lead.
These next two categories are where things get much harder to call.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Predicted Winner: Sinners
Who would have guessed the showdown would come down to blood drinking musicians in a juke joint and a Shakespearean drama about a grieving family? Yet here we are. Depending on which odds site you check, this is a tight two-way race between Sinners and Hamnet.
For me, the edge still goes to Sinners. It has pure originality, a standout ensemble, and the kind of long-lasting buzz that has held strong since its April release. Hamnet has the more traditional drama profile, and it also benefits from being a UK and US backed production, which normally gives it an advantage with this voting body. Sinners being more American made could work against it in a close race.
Even with that factor in play, I still think Sinners pulls it off. The performance strength, the scale of the film, and the staying power it has shown all season make it my pick. Last year, Wicked walked in with four nominations and only walked out with the popcorn award, so anything is possible, but Sinners gets my vote here.
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
Predicted Winner: Sentimental Value
This category has at least four legitimate contenders. Some polls show Jafar Panahi’sIt Was Just an Accident holding a narrow lead over my predicted winner Sentimental Value. There’s also noise around Brazil potentially repeating last year’s success by rewarding The Secret Agent. And then there’s the South Korean dark comedy No Other Choice, which tackles global economic decline and unemployment with Park Chan-wook’s signature bite.
As I’ve said before, this is one of the strongest International/Non-English slates we’ve seen in years. No matter who wins, the real victory is the level of global filmmaking on display.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Predicted Winner: Sinners
What are voters actually rewarding here? Are they looking at critic scores, audience ratings, box office totals, net profit, or that one film they feel deserves recognition but doesn’t fit into the major categories? Honestly, nobody truly knows how they weigh this thing. But for me, no matter which angle you take, the answer keeps coming back to Sinners.
Let’s take a look at how these films stack up:
We’ve covered the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement race, but that’s just one slice of the night. The acting categories are where the Globes really start throwing punches. Here’s how I see them breaking.
The Full Acting Breakdown
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
I know I’m going against the grain here, and I get why people are leaning toward Wagner Moura. This is the same voting body that pushed Fernanda Torres into the Oscar race after giving her the Globe, and Brazil winning back-to-back in this category isn’t impossible. But I don’t see Moura overtaking Michael B. Jordan.
For me, Jordan’s performance as both Smoke and Stack hits every note this category tends to reward: drama, action, emotional range, and pure entertainment value. If voters want the bigger, more dynamic star turn, Jordan clears that bar. Maybe it’s a long shot, maybe it’s stubborn hope, but he’s still my pick.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
I believe this is Chalamet’s year. He just secured his first Critics Choice win after three previous nominations, and this marks his fifth Globe nomination. Even though the Globes are voted on by journalists, not critics, I think they’re seeing what everyone else sees in his performance as ping-ponger Marty Mauser.
This race really comes down to Chalamet vs. Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s picking up his 15th Globe nomination (with three wins already on the shelf). The long shot with real potential splash is Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. It’s Hawke’s first Globe nomination for lead actor, and with the film also up for Best Picture – Drama, he could benefit from the added visibility around the movie.
But at the end of the day, I think this is Timmy’s year to finally walk away with the win after so many nominations.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Winner: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
There is no doubt in my mind that Skarsgård benefits from the Globes having the most diverse voting panel of any major Hollywood award. Add in the fact that he is starring in one of the most talked about films of the season, and an international one at that, and his path becomes even clearer. The Actor Awards nominations did not include a single international film this week, which only shows how different these voting bodies can be.
I do not see Elordi repeating his Critics Choice win with this voting body, and I think Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn end up splitting the One Battle After Another votes. With all of that in play, I have Stellan taking this one.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Buckley is the sweeper this year. I do not see anyone taking her down in this category at any point in the season, and if an upset ever happens, it will not be here. She is the clear choice.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Predicted Winner: Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
If you had told me a few months ago that Rose Byrne would be in serious contention this awards season, I would have laughed. Yet here I am predicting her to win. Her performance is electric, unexpectedly layered, and the kind of work that stays with you even if you never expected the film itself to gain traction.
Emma Stone (Bugonia), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) are all well known and well nominated, but Byrne holds her own against every single one of them. Chase Infiniti also delivers in One Battle After Another, but given this voting body, I do not see her winning here.
Byrne has given us one of the most surprising and deserving performances of the season, and I think the Globes will recognize that.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
This category breaks my heart, but I have to go head over heart and choose Amy Madigan over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good). Critics and journalists have been railing on the Wicked sequel, and I do not think they can separate their feelings about the film from Grande’s individual work. Meanwhile, Madigan delivers a horrifically funny and terrifyingly focused performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons.
Madigan won the Critics’ Choice last week, and I expect her to stay near the top of almost every major supporting race as the season goes on. She has the momentum, she has the role, and she is my pick.
Acting is done, so let’s move into the creative side of the night. Director, Screenplay, Score, and Song each tell their own story, and Screenplay is always interesting since it is combined for adapted and original. It is one of the rare chances we see Battle and Sinners go head-to-head.
Behind the Camera: Director, Screenplay, and Music
Best Director
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Unlike other awards where Anderson has collected numerous nominations, the Globes have only recognized him once before, and that was in 2022 for Best Screenplay for Licorice Pizza. Everything points to him securing the win here. His film is political, family focused in its own PTA way, and it has all the momentum this season as it continues breaking nomination records.
Best Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
This is a long shot because I am going against PTA and One Battle After Another, but when we talk screenplay, I think Coogler has the stronger script. It is tricky comparing original to adapted, yet that is exactly what this combined category forces us to do. If voters follow momentum and the current wave of excitement, then Anderson could pull off the writer, director producer sweep. Those sweeps are rare in award shows. They have only happened three times in Golden Globe history.,
If voters lean toward originality and persistence, then Ryan Coogler takes this with Sinners. A win would be historic. Coogler would become the first African American screenplay winner, and he is only the fifth Black nominee in this category’s history.
For me, this comes down to originality over adaptability, which means Coogler is my pick.
The Golden Globes will not be airing the Best Original Score winner during the live broadcast. Yes, it is bizarre, especially in a year when the score race actually matters. So, before they rush it off air, here is where I think the category lands.
Best Original Score
Predicted Winner: Ludwig Göransson (Sinners)
The score is the heartbeat of Sinners. Every note, every chorus, and every crescendo pulls you deeper into the world of the film. It gives the juke joint its rhythm and gives the vampires their pulse. The movie does not work without this sound. It also helps that the composer is Oscar winner Ludwig Göransson, who delivers one of his most dynamic scores yet.
The main challenger is the high energy, precision driven score from Hans Zimmer for F1: The Movie. There is also a smaller push behind Jonny Greenwood’s more experimental work for One Battle After Another. Even with those contenders in play, the emotional weight and narrative integration of the Sinners score give Göransson the edge.
Best Original Song
Predicted Winner: Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq, I Lied to You from Sinners
This category is a toss-up, and I am sticking with the same choice I made for the Critics’ Choice. I am choosing “I Lied to You” from Sinners. The Critics went with “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, which has been the predicted favorite all awards season, but this voting body is different. Journalists tend to respond more to the emotional weight and placement of “I Lied to You” than to the pure pop appeal of “Golden.”
There has also been real momentum behind “I Lied to You” within regional groups, and I think some of that carries over here. If I’m right, Göransson walks away with two wins tonight.
Final Thoughts
The Golden Globes are unpredictable, and that is exactly what gives them power. They may not line up with the Oscars, but they shape the conversation that Academy voters will be walking into as Oscar voting begins the day after the ceremony. These wins create visibility, sharpen narratives, and push certain contenders directly in front of voters at the exact moment ballots open.
These are my calls based on what the season has shown us so far. I think Sinners ends Sunday night with more wins than One Battle After Another, and I think OBAA gets shut out of the acting categories again. If that happens, then the Critics’ Choice pattern repeats. If it doesn’t, the race flips right under us.
I will have a post ceremony breakdown covering the wins, the surprises, and what actually matters as we move straight into Oscar voting. Predictions take logic. Awards season takes chaos. Sunday gives us both.
Want the full picture?
For the complete breakdown beyond this article:
View full Golden Globe nominations
View my full Golden Globe predictions
