2026 Oscar Best Cinematography Predictions

Tracking my evolving predictions for Cinematography throughout Awards Season.
👑 Winner Locked 🔒 Nomination Locked 🆕 New ▲ Rise ▼ Fall — No Change 🪦 Out of Contention (RIP)
Academy Awards Oscars statuette on transparent background

Cinematography

*Updated 01.16.2025

In the Spotlight

1

Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)

— 👑

2

Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso)

— 🔒

3

Frankenstein (Dan Lausten)

▲ 1 🔒

4

One Battle After Another (Michael Baumann)

▼ 1 🔒

5

Hamnet (Łukasz Żal)

On the Fringe

6

F1: The Movie (Claudio Miranda)

▲ 1

7

Wicked: For Good (Alice Brooks)

▼ 1

In the Mix

8

Marty Supreme (Darius Khondji)

9

Sirāt (Mauro Herce)

▲ 4

10

Bugonia (Robbie Ryan)

▼ 1

Long Shots

11

Nouvelle Vague (David Chambille)

▼ 1

12

Sentimental Value (Kasper Tuxen)

13

Song Sung Blue (Amy Vincent)

▲ 1

14

Ballad of a Small Player (James Friend)

▼ 3

15

Die My Love (Seamus McGarvey)

16

Sound of Falling (Fabian Gamper) 

The Testament of Ann Lee (William Rexer)
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Russell Carpenter)
No Other Choice (Kim Woo-hyung)
Jay Kelly (Linus Sandgren)
It Was Just an Accident (Amin Jafari)
Mickey 17 (Darius Khondji)

🪦

Shortlist scorecard showing 10 out of 16 correct predictions and 63 percent accuracy for Cinematography

The table updates as the awards season shifts – my ADHD and OCD won’t let it sit still. The leaderboard below stays put; it’s the Top 7 I locked in at the start of the month.

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Cinematography contenders for the 2026 Oscars (Jan 2026)

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Cinematography contenders for the 2026 Oscars.