2026 Oscar Best Documentary Short Film Predictions

Tracking my evolving predictions for Documentary Short throughout Awards Season.
👑 Winner Locked 🔒 Nomination Locked 🆕 New ▲ Rise ▼ Fall — No Change 🪦 Out of Contention (RIP)
Academy Awards Oscars statuette on transparent background

Documentary Short

*Updated 01.21.2025

In the Spotlight

1

Perfectly a Strangeness (Seeking U.S. Distribution)

▲ 3

2

We Were the Scenery (Seeking U.S. Distribution)

▲ 7

3

The Devil is Busy (HBO Documentary Films)

▼ 1 🔒

4

All the Empty Rooms (Netflix)

▼ 1

5

Heartbeat (Filmhub)

▲ 8

On the Fringe

6

Bad Hostage (Self-Distributed)

▲ 1

7

Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO Documentary Films)

▼ 6

In the Mix

8

Classroom 4 (PBS Distribution)

▼ 3

9

Cashing Out (The New Yorker)

▼ 1

10

On Healing Land, Birds Perch (L.A. Times)

▲ 2

Long Shots

11

All the Walls Come Down (L.A. Times)

▼ 5

12

Children No More: “Were and are Gone” (Medalia Productions | Salty Features | Full Story Films)

▼ 3

13

Rovina’s Choice (The New Yorker)

▼ 2

14

Chasing Time (PBS Distribution)

15

Last Days on Lake Trinity (The New Yorker)

Looking for a Donkey
Hoops, Hopes, & Dreams
Van Pianist
Am I the Skinniest Person You’ve Ever Seen?
Can’t Retire from This
Saving Superman
I’m Not Your Heroine
Who Loves the Sun

🪦

Shortlist scorecard showing 7 out of 15 correct predictions and 47 percent accuracy for Documentary Short

The table updates as the awards season shifts – my ADHD and OCD won’t let it sit still. The leaderboard below stays put; it’s the Top 7 I locked in at the start of the month.

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Documentary Short contenders for the 2026 Oscars (Jan 2026)

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Documentary Short contenders for the 2026 Oscars.