2026 Oscar International Feature Shortlist Predictions (Dec)
Here’s my full shortlist predictions before the Academy makes its announcement on Tuesday.
December 14, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller (Oscar Obsessed ADHD)
Ninety-two countries submitted films this year. Eighty-five advanced. Only fifteen will survive the shortlist cut on Tuesday.
This category is always brutal, but this season feels especially loaded. Festival buzz has turned into regional critics wins, and with Golden Globes and Critics Choice nominations now shaping the conversation, the noise is getting louder by the day. With Academy voting wrapped on December 12, we are officially in the danger zone where hype helps, silence kills, and momentum matters more than ever.
After spending weeks reviewing all 92 submitted films, watching the films I could, viewing every available trailer, and digging into storylines, festival reactions, and campaign momentum, the field narrowed quickly.
And despite all that movement, one conclusion never wavered: my top five.
NEON is about to run this category.
My top five predicted shortlist contenders are all NEON releases. That is thirty-three percent of my entire predicted shortlist. It is a massive showing in a category that rarely sees one distributor dominate like this. NEON came to play this year.
Below is my full shortlist. Fifteen films. No padding. No wavering.
#5. “Sirāt” | Spain
The Story:
A father and his son travel to a remote rave in the mountains of southern Morocco in search of his missing daughter, who vanished months earlier at one of these parties. As they hand out her photo with no leads, they decide to follow a group of ravers to another gathering, hoping it will finally bring them closer to finding her.
Why it Makes My Shortlist:
Festival pedigree matters in this category, and as a joint winner of the Cannes Jury Prize, shared with Germany’s The Sound of Falling, this film immediately elevates itself in the conversation. That early prestige has translated into real momentum on the critics’ side, showing up not just in Best International Feature mentions but across categories like Director, Cinematography, and Best Use of Music. Combined with NEON putting real weight behind its campaign this season, it enters the race with the kind of visibility and traction that often carries films through shortlist voting.
Spain’s track record with the Academy only strengthens its case. This marks the country’s 68th Oscar submission, with Spain reaching the shortlist 24 times, earning 21 nominations, and winning four Oscars. Its most recent win came at the 77th Academy Awards for The Sea Inside.
🎥 Directed by Óliver Laxe
🎬 Distributed by Neon
▶️ Watch Trailer
#4. “The Secret Agent” | Brazil
The Story:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the non-violent refuge he seeks.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
Coming off last year’s historic Oscar win for I’m Still Here, Brazil enters this season with renewed credibility in the category, and this film feels like a natural continuation of that momentum. Its strong showing at Venice, where it won Best Director for Kleber Mendonça Filho and Best Actor for Wagner Moura, immediately positioned it as a serious contender and established its prestige early in the race.
Moura’s performance and visibility have proven especially important. His Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Drama, the first ever for a Brazilian performer, has kept the film firmly in the conversation beyond the International Feature lane, expanding its reach with voters as the season tightened. That combination of festival pedigree, star-driven attention, and sustained momentum makes this one of Brazil’s strongest recent submissions.
This marks Brazil’s 55th submission. The country has reached the shortlist six times, earned five nominations, and had one prior disqualification.
🎥 Directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
🎬 Distributed by NEON
▶️ Watch Trailer
#3. “No Other Choice” | South Korea
The Story:
A loyal paper mill employee is suddenly laid off, and after years of unemployment, he comes up with a desperate plan to secure a new job by eliminating the competition.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
Park Chan-wook frames this story with dark, sharply observed humor, grounding its more extreme turns in a deeply relatable fear of financial collapse. At its core, the film is about a man trying to preserve the life he built for his family after losing the stability that once defined him. Lee Byung-hun’s performance is key, drawing the audience fully into that internal unraveling and making the character’s choices feel unsettling but human.
That emotional pull has translated into real momentum. After winning the International People’s Choice Award for Best Film at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), the film has continued to surface throughout the season, including three Golden Globe nominations for Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language, Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, and Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy.
This marks South Korea’s 38th submission. The country has reached the shortlist three times and made history at the 92nd Academy Awards when Parasite became the first international feature to win Best Picture. This is Park Chan-wook’s second time representing South Korea; his previous entry, Decision to Leave, made the shortlist at the 95th Academy Awards.
🎥 Directed by Park Chan-wook
🎬 Distributed by NEON
▶️ Watch Trailer
#2. “It Was Just an Accident” | France
The Story:
This intense thriller follows a man who believes he has found the man who tortured him while he was serving a prison sentence, and finds that seeking revenge is not so easy. A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
Two words: Jafar Panahi. Few filmmakers working today carry the kind of moral weight, international recognition, and artistic credibility that Panahi brings to this race, and this film has been positioned accordingly. It is being campaigned across multiple major categories, including Best International Feature, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Picture, signaling just how seriously it is being taken this season.
Within my own rankings, this film has consistently hovered between my top two choices in International Feature, and it currently sits at #6 in my Best Picture predictions, with Panahi ranked #2 among directors. That level of crossover strength matters. After winning the Palme d’Or at the 78th Cannes Film Festival, it enters the season with a level of prestige that almost guarantees attention during shortlist voting. An Oscar win would not be surprising.
Although the film was not selected by its home country of Iran, it ultimately found its Oscar path through France. Through its co-production and distribution ties, it was submitted to and selected by France’s National Cinema Centre, emerging from a competitive shortlist that included the animated hit Arco, Richard Linklater’s Golden Globe-nominated Nouvelle Vague, and A Private Life, starring Jodie Foster. That selection alone underscores how strongly France values this submission.
This marks France’s 73rd Oscar submission. The country has reached the shortlist 47 times, earned 42 nominations, and won twelve Oscars, including three honorary awards, most recently for Indochine at the 65th Academy Awards.
🎥 Directed by Jafar Panahi
🎬 Distributed by NEON
▶️ Watch Trailer
#1. “Sentimental Value” | Norway
The Story:
The film follows two sisters – Agnes and Nora – who reunite with their estranged, charismatic father Gustav, a once famous director who proposes a role in what he hopes to be his comeback film to stage. His actress daughter, Nora, turns it down. A young American star who takes the role adds to the already complicated family dynamic surrounding the film.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
There hasn’t been a single day this awards season where this film hasn’t been part of the conversation. From the start, it has transcended the usual International Feature lane, surfacing consistently in acting, directing, and Best Picture discussions. That trajectory began with its Grand Prix win at Cannes and has only intensified, most recently with eight Golden Globe nominations and seven Critics Choice nominations, including four for acting.
That level of performance recognition is why this is my predicted winner. We rarely see an international film generate this kind of sustained attention for its cast, and here it feels central to the film’s strength rather than peripheral. Its crossover success makes it a genuine Best Picture contender as well, where it currently sits at #3 in my rankings.
This marks Norway’s 47th submission. The country has reached the shortlist nine times and earned six nominations but has yet to secure a win. This feels like the moment that changes.
🎥 Directed by Joachim Trier
🎬 Distributed by NEON
▶️ Watch Trailer
Beyond my locked top five, two films remain firmly on the fringe, well within striking distance if momentum breaks their way.
#6. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” | Tunisia
The Story:
This drama, world-premiering at this year’s Venice Film Festival, reconstructs the killing of six-year-old Hind Rajab, her four cousins, her aunt and uncle, and the two paramedics who tried to rescue her. The film traces the events of January 2024, when their car came under fire as they attempted to flee Gaza City amid Israel’s ongoing military operation following the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
A win at the Venice Film Festival gives this film an immediate credibility boost, and its Golden Globe nomination for Best International Feature keeps it firmly in the conversation. While the Globes allow for a wider field than the Oscars, that nomination still signals meaningful visibility at a crucial point in the season, keeping the film within striking distance as shortlist voting concludes.
Director Kaouther Ben Hania’s track record with the Academy strengthens its case. This is her fourth time representing Tunisia, following Beauty and the Dogs, which missed the shortlist, The Man Who Sold His Skin, which earned a nomination, and Four Daughters, which made the shortlist and went on to receive a Best Documentary nomination at the 96th Academy Awards. This marks Tunisia’s 12th submission overall, with two shortlist appearances and one nomination, all coming from Ben Hania herself.
🎥 Directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
🎬 Distributed by Watermelon Pictures
▶️ Watch Trailer
#7. “Belén” | Argentina
The Story:
Pulling from true events, the film follows a young woman who is admitted to a hospital with severe abdominal pain, unaware she is pregnant. She wakes up handcuffed to a gurney and surrounded by police, accused of having self-induced an abortion. After two years in detention, she is sentenced to eight years in prison for aggravated homicide. A female lawyer from Tucumán fights for her freedom with the support of thousands of women and organizations, who unite to change the course of history.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
I was drawn to this film early, even before seeing it, based on its foundation as a true story and its adaptation of Ana Correa’s book Somos Belén. There was an immediate familiarity to it, echoing the anticipation I felt ahead of Denmark’s The Girl with the Needle last season. After watching the film on Amazon Prime, that early confidence held. It’s a quietly powerful piece of storytelling that earns its place on the shortlist, even in an unusually crowded field.
Its momentum has continued to build as the season has unfolded. The film’s accessibility on Prime, combined with wins and recognition from the Hollywood Creative Alliance Astra Film Awards and a Critics Choice nomination for Best International Feature, has kept it visible at a key moment in the race. In a different year, this might have felt like a stronger nomination threat, but here it stands as a credible shortlist contender.
Argentina’s history with the Academy adds weight. This marks the country’s 52nd submission, with eight nominations and two wins, most recently for The Secret in Their Eyes at the 82nd Academy Awards, following The Official Story at the 58th.
🎥 Directed by Dolores Fonzi
🎬 Distributed by Amazon MGM Studios
▶️ Watch Trailer
#8. “Left-Handed Girl” | Taiwan
The Story:
A single mother and her two daughters return to Taipei after several years of living in the countryside to open a stand at a buzzing night market. Each in their way will have to adapt to this new environment to make ends meet and maintain the family unity. But when their traditional grandfather forbids his youngest left-handed granddaughter from using her “devil hand,” generations of family secrets begin to unravel.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
This film first caught my attention through its premise and trailer, but its growing visibility over the past few weeks is what pushed it firmly into the conversation. That momentum became harder to ignore once it landed Critics Choice nominations for Best International Feature and Best Young Actor/Actress for Nina Ye, signaling that the film’s performance-driven appeal is resonating beyond early curiosity.
Its accessibility also matters. With the film available to stream on Netflix, it benefits from a level of exposure many international titles never reach. That visibility is reinforced behind the scenes by Sean Baker, four-time Oscar winner who co-wrote and edited the film following his historic win last season. Baker’s continued collaboration with director Tsou adds credibility, marking Tsou’s solo directorial debut with an experienced hand guiding the project.
This is Taiwan’s 51st submission. The country has reached the shortlist five times, earned three nominations, and won once, most recently at the 73rd Academy Awards for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
🎥 Directed by Shih-Ching Tsou
🎬 Distributed by Netflix
▶️ Watch Trailer
#9. “Sound of Falling” | Germany
The Story:
A remote German farm harbors generations of secrets. Four women, separated by decades but united by trauma, uncover the truth behind its weathered walls.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
The trailer alone makes a compelling case, immediately setting this film apart through its tone and emotional clarity. That first impression is reinforced by its status as a joint winner of the Cannes Jury Prize, a distinction that reliably signals branch-friendly prestige. Its momentum has continued into the season with two Gotham nominations, for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay.
At its core, this is a story centered on women and pain, told with a distinctive and assured voice that feels both intimate and formally confident. Germany’s track record with the Academy only strengthens its positioning. This marks the country’s 66th submission, with Germany reaching the shortlist 27 times, earning 22 nominations, and winning four Oscars, most recently for All Quiet on the Western Front at the 95th Academy Awards.
🎥 Directed by Mascha Schilinski
🎬 Distributed by MUBI
▶️ Watch Trailer
#10. “The Tale of Silyan” | North Macedonia
The Story:
A farmer’s bond with a white stork intertwines with North Macedonian folklore.
Documents the story of a former farmer left behind by mass migration who gets a job at a landfill. There, he finds an injured white stork, which intertwines with North Macedonian folklore. As he nurses the stork back to health, the pair form a bond.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
While this film has yet to break through in the International Feature conversation directly, it has become one of the most dominant titles of the season in the documentary space. Its recent win for Best Feature Documentary at the International Documentary Association Awards, along with additional IDA nominations for Best Director and Best Cinematography, has firmly established it as a major player beyond this category.
That momentum shows no signs of slowing. With pending documentary nominations from the Producers Guild of America, Cinema Eye Honors, Critics Choice Documentary Awards, and several regional groups, the film has remained consistently visible throughout the season. I currently have it ranked at #4 in my Best Documentary predictions, and that sustained attention matters. Strong documentary momentum has a history of carrying films into the International Feature shortlist, and this feels like another case where crossover recognition keeps the film firmly in play.
This marks North Macedonia’s 21st submission. The country has earned two nominations to date, for Before the Rain at the 67th Academy Awards and Honeyland at the 92nd.
🎥 Directed by Tamara Kotevska
🎬 Distributed by National Geographic Documentary Films
▶️ Watch Trailer
Rounding out my shortlist predictions are five films that remain very much in the conversation, each with a clear path to earning its way on the shortlist.
#11. “The President’s Cake” | Iraq
The Story:
Drawing from the director’s own childhood in 1990s Iraq, the film follows nine-year-old Lamia, who is tasked with baking a cake for her classmates to celebrate the President’s birthday. With ingredients scarce and shortages everywhere, the assignment becomes dangerous: failing to deliver could mean prison – or worse – for her family.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
When a director draws directly from personal experience, that intimacy tends to translate on screen. Even without having seen the finished film, its emotional intent comes through clearly in the trailers and early reviews, which point to a deeply personal story told with confidence and control. That impression was validated at Cannes, where the film won both the Caméra d’Or and the Audience Award at Directors’ Fortnight, signaling strong resonance with critics and audiences alike. With Sony Pictures Classics backing the campaign, it enters the race with both credibility and the infrastructure needed to stay visible through the season.
Iraq has yet to reach the shortlist with its previous thirteen submissions, but this feels like the year that changes. If the country is going to break through, this is the film positioned to do it.
🎥 Directed by Hasan Hadi
🎬 Distributed by Sony Pictures Classic
▶️ Watch Trailer
#12. “My Father’s Shadow” | United Kingdom
The Story:
Two young brothers travel with their estranged father from their rural Nigerian village to Lagos during the 1993 election crisis, where they confront both the vastness of the city and their father’s daily struggles. As political unrest intensifies, their journey home becomes increasingly uncertain.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
This film broke through early by becoming the first Nigerian title to screen in Cannes’ Un Certain Regard section, a milestone that immediately set it apart. That visibility was reinforced with a Caméra d’Or Special Mention, signaling recognition beyond its initial platform. Its momentum has continued on the performance side as well, with Sopé Dìrísù winning Outstanding Lead Performance at the Gotham Film Awards, followed by nominations from the New York Film Critics Online Association. Director Akinola Davies Jr. has also remained in the conversation, earning a Debut Director nomination, while the film itself has picked up multiple nominations from both the British Independent Film Awards and the European Film Awards.
The question now is campaign strength. With MUBI behind the film, a more aggressive push could make the difference, especially given the United Kingdom’s track record with the Academy. This marks the country’s 22nd submission, with three prior nominations and one win, most recently for The Zone of Interest at the 96th Academy Awards.
🎥 Directed by Akinola Davies Jr.
🎬 Distributed by MUBI
▶️ Watch Trailer
#13. “2000 Meters to Andriivka” | Ukraine
The Story:
A Ukrainian platoon’s mission: traverse a heavily fortified mile of forest to liberate a strategic village from Russian forces. A journalist accompanies them, witnessing the ravages of war and the growing uncertainty about its conclusion.
Why It Makes My Shortlist:
International documentaries have a long history of resonating with Academy voters, particularly in a category where the shortlist is decided by members across all branches who meet the viewing threshold. This film carries real weight behind it through its director, Mstyslav Chernov, who won the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature for 20 Days in Mariupol. That film also reached the International Feature shortlist at the 96th Academy Awards, underscoring Chernov’s ability to connect beyond the documentary branch.
That credibility has continued this season. The film earned Chernov the World Cinema Documentary Directing Award at Sundance and has remained one of the most consistently recognized titles in the documentary race. While it may not be commanding the same attention in the International Feature conversation, sustained documentary momentum matters. I currently have it ranked at #2 in my Best Documentary predictions, and there are very few major awards bodies that have left it off their documentary nomination lists.
This marks Ukraine’s 18th Oscar submission. One previous entry was disqualified, and the country has reached the shortlist once. With Chernov’s recent Academy history and continued visibility, this feels like a credible opportunity for Ukraine to re-enter the conversation.
🎥 Directed by Mstyslav Chernov
🎬 Distributed by PBS Distribution
▶️ Watch Trailer
The final two films on my shortlist are here for a different reason. They arrive without the festival wins, precursor nominations, or awards history backing the rest of the field. Instead, these selections are driven entirely by storytelling, tone, and how I believe their narratives may resonate with voters once ballots are in hand.
#14. “Palestine 36” | Palestine
The Story:
This historical drama explores the 1936–1939 Arab Revolt, when Palestinians rose up against British colonial rule amid increasing Jewish immigration. Following Yusuf as he moves between Jerusalem and his rural home, the film traces his journey through growing unrest and a turning point in the British Empire’s presence in the region.
🎥 Directed by Annemarie Jacir
🎬 Distributed by Watermelon Pictures
▶️ Watch Trailer
This is Palestine’s 18th submission and the fourth time director Annemarie Jacir has represented the country, though none of her films have reached the shortlist. Palestine has made the shortlist three times overall and earned two nominations.
#15. “Late Shift” | Switzerland
The Story:
Floria, a dedicated nurse, tirelessly serves in an understaffed hospital ward. However, today her shift becomes a tense and urgent race against the clock.
🎥 Directed by Petra Biondina Volpe
🎬 Distributed by Music Box Films
▶️ Watch Trailer
This is Switzerland’s 53rd submission. The country has had one film disqualified, reached the shortlist eight times, earned five nominations, and won twice – most recently at the 63rd Oscars for Journey of Hope.
As shortlist week arrives, this category feels both familiar and wide open. A handful of films appear firmly positioned for nomination, but beyond that, the field remains one of the most competitive of the season. Fifteen contenders. Fifteen countries. Fifteen stories shaped by identity, culture, conflict, grief, and love.
The shortlist arrives Tuesday.
Let’s see which films survive the cut.
🎬 Who do you think will make the International Feature shortlist? Reply on X @OscarObsessADHD or join the conversation on today’s Instagram post @OscarObsessedADHD.
