2026 Oscar Nomination Predictions are Live

2026 Oscar Nomination Predictions Are Live

The 125-Point Game Begins: How Many Nominations Will You Get Right?

January 21, 2026 | Lisa Hatzenbeller

Look, if you’re new here, here’s the truth: nomination morning is basically a math exam disguised as a panic attack.

My ADHD tracked every precursor at 3 a.m., my OCD color coded the spreadsheets, and now the full slate of 2026 Oscar nomination predictions is officially locked in with 16 hours to spare.

All 24 categories. Fully updated. Fully chaotic.

Collage of 2026 Oscar nomination predicted above-the-line category films, including Bugonia, Hamnet, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Train Dreams, and Wicked: For Good with two Oscar statuettes in the middle. — A look at a few of the films being predicted for nominations at the 2026 Oscars.

Let’s Play the Game

The Academy Awards has 24 categories this year, with the new Casting category making its debut. So, if Best Picture gets 10 nominees and every other category gets five, the maximum someone can score on nomination morning is 125.

Most casual predictors usually land in the 70 to 80 range, especially in a season this unpredictable.

Will we see one-off nominees from films that miss Best Picture?
Can Wicked: For Good make a comeback despite missing key precursors?

And honestly, the short-film categories should count for double. If you can nail Documentary Short, Live Action Short, and Animated Short without closing your eyes and guessing, you’re built different.

Me? I’d love to crack 100, but let’s be honest, I took a few long shots because chaos is part of my personality.

Predicted Nomination Totals

Here’s the high-level map of the race – the films I’m projecting to land the biggest nomination hauls (and yes, I included my current predicted wins):

Sinners – 15 noms – 4 wins
One Battle After Another – 14 noms – 4 wins
Hamnet – 12 noms – 1 win
Frankenstein – 11 noms – 3 wins
Wicked: For Good – 8 noms – 1 win (yes, I still believe #GrandeOscarWin)
Sentimental Value – 7 noms – 2 wins
F1: The Movie – 4 noms – 1 win
Marty Supreme – 4 noms – 1 win
Train Dreams – 4 noms – 0 wins
The Secret Agent – 3 noms – 0 wins
KPop Demon Hunters – 2 noms – 2 wins
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 2 noms – 1 win
Bugonia – 2 noms – 0 wins
It Was Just an Accident – 2 noms – 0 wins
No Other Choice – 2 noms – 0 wins
Sirāt – 2 noms – 0 wins

This page isn’t about #1 picks or category breakdowns. This is your overview. The full chaos, movement, rankings, and deep-dive analysis all live in the category prediction pages.