2026 Oscar Original Song Shortlist Predictions (Oct)
Fifteen songs. One shot at gold, this race is a knife fight.
October 28, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller (Oscar Obsessed ADHD)
The Original Song race is wide open this year; all noise, big emotions and a few veterans chasing unfinished business. The Academy definitely won’t be skipping live performances this year, so expect to hear every note on Oscar night. Submissions closed Oct 15. Preliminary voting runs Dec 8 to 12. The Academy announces the 15-song shortlist on Dec 16. Five of those will become nominees when the Academy reveals the final ballot. I’m locking in my predictions now: fifteen picks, no padding, no hedges.
Below I’m giving you not only my shortlist but also my predictions nominations, the songs I think will survive the nominations cut on January 22.
#5. “Dear Me” | Diane Warren: Relentless
What would the Oscars be without a Diane Warren song? This would mark her 17th nomination and her ninth consecutive year on the ballot. It’s Warren writing a song about Warren for a Warren documentary…could this finally be the year she slips through. It’s possible, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if voters split their Sinners and Wicked: For Good votes.
✍️ Written by Diane Warren
🎤 Performed by Kesha
🎬 Distributed by Greenwich Entertainment
🎧 “Dear Me” | Diane Warren: Relentless [Full Video]
#4. “The Girl in the Bubble” | Wicked: For Good
Stephen Schwartz is known for crafting big solo moments, and he does it twice this season in Wicked for Good. Ariana Grande’s powerhouse vocals and poised supporting turn make this one a real contender. I’m predicting Grande to win Best Supporting Actress, and so combine that with this new material, it’s almost a guarantee this song earns a nomination.
✍️ Written by Stephen Schwartz
🎤 Performed by Ariana Grande
🎬 Distributed by Universal Pictures
🎧 Wicked: For Good [Official Trailer]
#3. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” | Sinners
Miles Caton co-wrote and performed this standout ballad, and while I don’t expect him to land a Supporting Actor nod, I do expect him to gain recognition here. The Academy notices range, and with this breakout performance and vocal range, it’s a lock for nomination.
✍️ Written by Alice Smith, Ludwig Göransson, and Miles Caton
🎤 Performed by Miles Caton
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures
🎧“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” | Sinners [Official Song]
#2. “Golden” | KPop Demon Hunters
Maybe I’m delusional for putting this one at #2 because everyone else has it at #1. I get it…it’s spent five weeks at the top of the Billboard Top 100 and became the first song by a female pop group to hit #1 in 24 years, since Destiny’s Child. It’s loud, viral, and sitting at 8.3 billion streams. Despite the hype, I don’t see it becoming the standout with Academy voters.
✍️ Written by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
🎤 Performed by EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and REI Ami
🎬 Distributed by Netflix
🎧 “Golden” | KPop Demon Hunters [Full Video]
#1. “No Place Like Home” | Wicked: For Good
Hitting the bullseye and taking my #1 slot is the other new original Stephen Schwartz song. This emotional anthem about belonging written perfectly for Cynthia Erivo’s commanding voice. After the massive success of Wicked: Part One and it’s surprising lack of Oscar love, this feels like the Academy’s chance to make it right. Schwartz, a nine-time nominee and three-time winner, looks ready for his return to the Dolby and a date with ‘Oscar’.
✍️ Written by Stephen Schwartz
🎤 Performed by Cynthia Erivo
🎬 Distributed by Universal Pictures
🎧 Wicked: For Good [Official Trailer]
Before we move into the next two, consider these five the heartbeat of the race…the ones I’d bet on if ballots closed today. Two more are trailing closely behind, ready to pounce if the season shifts even slightly.
#6. “Dream as One” | Avatar: Fire and Ash
Last year Miley Cyrus and Andrew Wyatt saw the Academy snub “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, despite earning Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. This time, backed by a blockbuster franchise and a soaring melody, they might finally get their redemption.
✍️ Written by Andrew Wyatt, Mark Rosen, and Miley Cyrus.
🎤 Performed by Miley Cyrus
🎬 Distributed by 20th Century Studios
🎧 “Dream as One” | Avatar: Fire and Ash [Official Teaser Trailer]
#7. “I Lied to You” | Sinners
Ludwig Göransson’s pedigree (three Oscar nominations, two wins) combined with the groove of Raphael Saadiq make this one a quiet threat. Göransson also wrote the other Sinners’ contender, “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”, and while his track record gives the song real weight, it’s hard to imagine both tracks from the same film surviving the final cut.
✍️ Written by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
🎤 Performed by Miles Caton
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures
🎧 “I Lied to You” | Sinners [Movie Clip]
#8. “Zoo” | Zootopia 2
The popularity of a well-known sequel and Shakira’s track record with the Academy make this one feel like a sure bet. Her previous song, “Try Everything,” from the first Zootopia made the 89th Oscar shortlist, history will repeat itself.
✍️ Performed and Written by Shakira
🎬 Distributed by Walt Disney Pictures
🎧 “Zoo” | Zootopia 2 [Full Video]
#9. “Lose My Mind” | F1
Written by hip-hop master Don Toliver and paired with the energy of popular rapper Doja Cat, this one checks every box. Throw in a Brad Pitt-led racing movie, and you’ve got the mix of star power, genre blend, and commercial heat that could easily propel it onto the shortlist.
✍️ Written by Don Toliver
🎤 Performed by Doja Cat & Don Toliver
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures & Apple Original Films
🎧 “Lose My Mind” | F1 [Full Video]
#10. “Clothed by the Sun” | The Testament of Ann Lee
This entry marks the return of last year’s Best Score Oscar winner, Daniel Blumberg, who won for The Brutalist. This song is one of only two original songs written for this film. His ability to draw from original Shaker hymns and use modern sounds could give this quiet piece a real shot at the shortlist.
✍️ Written by Daniel Blumberg
🎤 Performed by Amanda Seyfried
🎬 Distributed by Searchlight Pictures
🎧 No official movie trailer
#11. “Just Keep Watching” | F1
With Tate McRae’s rise in popularity and the speed of racing film behind her, this track has real momentum. The mix of McRae’s sharp vocal and F1’s slick energy makes it one of two songs from the soundtrack I expect to land on the shortlist
✍️ Written by Amy Allen, Ryan Tedder, Tate McRae, and Tyler Spry
🎤 Performed by Tate McRae
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures
🎧 “Just Keep Watching” | F1 [Full Video]
#12. “Highest 2 Lowest” | Highest 2 Lowest
Aiyana Lee, discovered by director Spike Lee on Instagram, delivers the title track to the film. While the movie itself may have left audiences underwhelmed, her song lingers long after the credits. With a voice that blends grit and grace, it’s a sleeper pick that will comfortably land on the shortlist.
✍️ Written and Performed by Aiyana Lee
🎬 Distributed by A24 | Apple TV+
🎧 Highest 2 Lowest [Official Trailer]
#13. “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” | Tron: Ares
I love me some Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, and this song is everything you’d expect from NIN; textured, moody, and built to haunt. It’s a perfect fit for Tron: Ares, but the film’s box office flop hasn’t helped its momentum. Both are repeat Oscar winners, yet after only scoring a score shortlist nod for Challengers last year, I fear this will be the ceiling again.
✍️ Written and Performed by Nine Inch Nails
🎬 Distributed by Walt Disney Pictures
🎧 “As Alive As You Need Me To Be” | Tron: Ares [Full Video]
#14. “Train Dreams” | Train Dreams
Nick Cave delivers the title track he co-wrote with Bryce Dessner, and the result is pure storytelling in song form. The film wowed audiences at Sundance and continues to earn raves. Told through the eyes of a man building the railroad across America and the distance from his family, the song carries the film’s heart in its verses.
✍️ Written by Bryce Dessner and Nick Cave
🎤 Performed by Nick Cave
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures
🎧 Train Dreams [Official Trailer]
#15. “We’re Not Like Ev’ryone Else” | The Twits
This standout song from the Netflix animated film The Twits was penned by David Byrne, frontman of Talking Heads. Inspired by the 1966 Kinks track of a similar name, Byrne’s version is a wholly original creation sung by the voice cast about their delusional sense of superiority. It’s a perfect satirical closer for this shortlist.
✍️ Written by David Byrne
🎤 Performed by the voice cast (Euan Morton and Margo Martindale)
🎬 Distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures
🎧 “We’re Not Like Ev’ryone Else” | The Twits [Full Video]
Some outlets will hand you twenty or more titles and call it coverage. I don’t. This is instinct and conviction…fifteen songs I actually believe can make it to the Dolby. No extras. No filler. Just pulse, melody, and intent.
When the shortlist drops on December 16, we’ll see who hits the right note and who fades before the bridge. Stay tuned to The Main Character Effect and watch for updates to the upcoming Awards Season Tracker, coming soon to the site.
🎧 Keep following the season here – the next race is already lining up.
