2026 Oscar Nomination Predictions
Tracking the 2026 Oscars race with my ranked predictions across every category, updated as the season shifts.
98th Academy Awards
Shortlist: December 16, 2025 • Nominations: January 22, 2026 • Ceremony: March15, 2026
Season Stage: Nomination Predictions
Updated on Jan. 21, 2026 – Casting, Shorts, & Visual Effects
Picture | Director | Lead Actor | Lead Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Adapted Screenplay | Original Screenplay | Animated Feature | Animated Short | Casting | Cinematography | Costume Design | Documentary Feature | Documentary Short | Film Editing | International Feature | Live Action Short | Makeup & Hairstyling | Production Design | Score | Song | Sound | Visual Effects
Best Picture
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Hamnet (Focus Features) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Marty Supreme (A24) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
Sentimental Value (NEON) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
6 |
Frankenstein (Netflix) |
▲ 2 🔒 |
|
7 |
Bugonia (Focus Features) |
▲ 6 |
|
8 |
Train Dreams (Netflix) |
▲ 2 |
|
9 |
The Secret Agent (NEON) |
— |
|
10 |
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
▼ 3 🔒 |
Full Best Picture predictions →
Best Director
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Sinners – Ryan Coogler |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier |
▲ 1 |
|
5 |
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro |
▲ 2 |
Full Best Director predictions →
Lead Actor
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) |
▲ 3 🔒 |
|
4 |
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) |
▼ 1 |
Full Best Lead Actor predictions →
Lead Actress
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Emma Stone (Bugonia) |
▼ 1 |
|
5 |
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) |
— |
Full Best Lead Actress predictions →
Supporting Actor
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
3 |
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Paul Mescal (Hamnet) |
▲ 1 |
|
5 |
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) |
▼ 1 |
Full Best Supporting Actor predictions →
Supporting Actress
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
Amy Madigan (Weapons) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) |
▲ 2 |
|
5 |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) |
▼ 1 |
Full Best Supporting Actress predictions →
Adapted Screenplay
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Hamnet (Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Train Dreams (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro) |
— 🔒 |
|
5 |
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye, Don McKellar) |
— |
Full Best Adapted Screenplay predictions →
Original Screenplay
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Sinners (Ryan Coogler) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie) |
— 🔒 |
|
5 |
Sorry, Baby (Eva Victor) |
▲ 2 |
Full Best Original Screenplay predictions →
International Feature
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Sentimental Value – Norway (NEON) |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
The Secret Agent – Brazil (NEON) |
▲ 2 🔒 |
|
3 |
It Was Just an Accident – France (NEON) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
No Other Choice – South Korea (NEON) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
Sirāt – Spain (NEON) |
— 🔒 |
Full Best International Feature predictions →
Animated Feature
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney Pictures) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Elio (Disney/Pixar) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Arco (NEON) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Crunchyroll | Sony Pictures Entertainment) |
▲ 3 |
Full Best Animated Feature predictions →
Animated Short
*Updated 01.21.2025
|
1 |
Snow Bear |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
Retirement Plan |
▲ 5 |
|
3 |
Butterfly (Papillon) |
▲1 |
|
4 |
Hurikán |
▲ 11 |
|
5 |
Forevergreen |
▲ 3 |
Full Best Animated Short predictions →
Casting
*Updated 01.21.2025
|
1 |
Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
▲ 1🔒 |
|
2 |
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
3 |
Sentimental Value (NEON) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Hamnet (Focus Features) |
— |
|
5 |
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
— |
Full Best Casting predictions →
Cinematography
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Frankenstein (Dan Lausten) |
▲ 1🔒 |
|
4 |
One Battle After Another (Michael Baumann) |
▼ 1🔒 |
|
5 |
Hamnet (Łukasz Żal) |
— |
Full Best Cinematography predictions →
Costume Design
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Frankenstein (Kate Hawley) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Wicked: For Good (Paul Tazwell) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Sinners (Ruth E. Carter) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Hamnet (Malgosia Turzanska) |
—🔒 |
|
5 |
Hamnet (Łukasz Żal) |
▲ 1 |
Full Best Costume Design predictions →
Documentary Feature
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) |
— 🔒 |
|
2 |
2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS Distribution) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films) |
— |
|
4 |
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (Argot Picture) |
▲ 1 |
|
5 |
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Bantam Films) |
▼ 1 |
Full Best Documentary Feature predictions →
Documentary Short
*Updated 01.21.2025
|
1 |
Perfectly a Strangeness (Seeking U.S. Distribution) |
▲ 3 |
|
2 |
We Were the Scenery (Seeking U.S. Distribution) |
▲ 7 |
|
3 |
The Devil is Busy (HBO Documentary Films) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
All the Empty Rooms (Netflix) |
▼ 1 |
|
5 |
Heartbeat (Filmhub) |
▲ 8 |
Full Best Documentary Short predictions →
Film Editing
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Sinners (Michael P. Shawver) |
▲ 1🔒 |
|
2 |
F1: The Movie (Stephen Mirrione, Patrick J. Smith) |
▲ 3 🔒 |
|
3 |
One Battle After Another (Andy Jurgensen) |
▼ 2 🔒 |
|
4 |
Hamnet (Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao) |
— 🔒 |
|
5 |
Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie) |
▼ 2 |
Full Best Film Editing predictions →
Live Action Short
*Updated 01.21.2025
|
1 |
The Pearl Comb |
▲ 12 |
|
2 |
The Singers |
▲ 7 |
|
3 |
Two People Exchanging Saliva |
▲ 5 |
|
4 |
Rock, Paper, Scissors |
▲ 3 |
|
5 |
Ado |
▼ 4 🔒 |
Full Best Live Action Short predictions →
Makeup and Hairstyling
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Frankenstein (Netflix) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
The Smashing Machine (A24) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
3 |
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
— 🔒 |
|
5 |
Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classic) |
▲ 1 |
Full Best Makeup and Hairstyling predictions →
Original Score
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Sinners (Ludwig Göransson) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
F1: The Movie (Hans Zimmer) |
▲ 2 🔒 |
|
3 |
One Battle After Another (Jonny Greenwood) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
Hamnet (Max Richer) |
— |
Full Best Original Score predictions →
Original Song
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
I Lied to You from Sinners |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
The Girl in the Bubble from Wicked: For Good |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
Dream as One from Avatar: Fire and Ash |
▲ 2 |
|
5 |
Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless |
— |
Full Best Original Song predictions →
Production Design
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Frankenstein (Shane Vieau, Tamara Deverell) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Sinners (Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne) |
▲ 1🔒 |
|
3 |
Wicked: For Good (Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales) |
▼ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Hamnet (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton) |
▲ 1 |
|
5 |
One Battle After Another (Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino) |
▲ 1 |
Full Best Production Design predictions →
Sound
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
F1: The Movie (Apple Films | Warner Bros.) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Frankenstein (Netflix) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
4 |
Sirāt (NEON) |
▲ 2 🔒 |
|
5 |
One Battle After Another (Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino) |
▼ 2 |
Full Best Sound predictions →
Visual Effects
*Updated 01.16.2025
|
1 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) |
— 👑 |
|
2 |
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
— 🔒 |
|
3 |
Frankenstein (Netflix) |
— 🔒 |
|
4 |
F1: The Movie (Apple Films / Warner Bros.) |
▲ 1 🔒 |
|
5 |
The Lost Bus (Apple Films) |
▲ 2 |
Full Best Visual Effects predictions →
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