2026 Oscar Best Lead Actress Predictions

Tracking my evolving predictions for Lead Actress throughout Awards Season.
Academy Awards Oscars statuette on transparent background

Lead Actress

*Updated 01.16.2025

In the Spotlight

1

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

— 👑

2

Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)

— 🔒

3

Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)

▲ 1 🔒

4

Emma Stone (Bugonia)

▼ 1

5

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

On the Fringe

6

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

7

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

In the Mix

8

Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)

9

Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

▲ 3

10

Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)

▼ 1

Long Shots

11

Tessa Thompson (Hedda)

▼ 1

12

Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

▼ 1

13

Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?

14

June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)

15

Sydney Sweeney (Christy)

Gold OSCARS logo with Oscar logo A

The table updates as the awards season shifts – my ADHD and OCD won’t let it sit still. The leaderboard below stays put; it’s the Top 7 I locked in at the start of the month.

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Lead Actress contenders for the 2026 Oscars. (Jan 2026)

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Lead Actress contenders for the 2026 Oscars.