2026 Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

Tracking my evolving predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay throughout Awards Season.
👑 Winner Locked 🔒 Nomination Locked 🆕 New ▲ Rise ▼ Fall — No Change 🪦 Out of Contention (RIP)
Academy Awards Oscars statuette on transparent background

Adapted Screenplay

*Updated 01.16.2025

In the Spotlight

1

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

— 👑

2

Hamnet (Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell)

— 🔒

3

Train Dreams (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)

— 🔒

4

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)

— 🔒

5

No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye, Don McKellar)

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On the Fringe

6

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)

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7

Bugonia (Will Tracey)

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In the Mix

8

Wicked: For Good (Jon M. Chu)

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9

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

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10

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Scott Cooper)

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Long Shots

11

Nuremberg (James Vanderbilt)

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12

Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan)

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13

Hedda (Nia DaCosta)

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14

Die My Love (Enda Walsh, Lynne Ramsay, Alice Birch)

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15

Mickey 17 (Bong Joon Ho)

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The table updates as the awards season shifts – my ADHD and OCD won’t let it sit still. The leaderboard below stays put; it’s the Top 7 I locked in at the start of the month.

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Best Adapted Screenplay contenders for the 2026 Oscars (Dec. 2025)

Leaderboard graphic showing the top 7 Best Adapted Screenplay contenders for the 2026 Oscars (Dec. 2025)