What the Golden Globe Nominations Reveal About the 2026 Oscar Race
Now that the dust has settled
December 29, 2025 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller (Oscar Obsessed ADHD)
Weeks after the Golden Globe nominations were announced, the real story is easier to see. With the immediate reactions out of the way, the noise has faded, and the patterns have started to take shape. What initially felt chaotic now reads as far more deliberate.
This marks only the third year under the Globes’ expanded voting body, following the dissolution of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). With each passing season, the organization has moved further from its old habits, and this ballot may be the clearest indication yet of what the Globes are trying to become.
Before going any further, it’s worth setting expectations. This is not a predictions article. It’s a look at what the Golden Globe nominations themselves reveal about the early shape of the 2026 Oscar race, where momentum is forming and where uncertainty still lingers.
A voting body still defining itself
The clearest takeaway from this year’s nominations is how different the Globes now look compared to their HFPA-era identity. Best Picture (Drama) included three international titles, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and The Secret Agent, a lineup that would have been nearly unthinkable just a few years ago.
That shift carried into Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), where two Richard Linklater films, Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague, landed alongside international favorite No Other Choice. The presence of directors Jafar Panahi and Joachim Trier across major categories reinforces just how global this ballot has become.
This doesn’t feel random. It reads as a voting body actively signaling broader taste, wider curiosity, and a growing willingness to look beyond traditional, studio-centered awards narratives.
Clear momentum and early winners
If some parts of the ballot reflect experimentation, others simply confirm what the season has already been telling us. One Battle After Another and Sinners continue to dominate wherever they appear, and the Globes did nothing to disrupt that trajectory. Their strength here feels less like a surprise and more like validation of momentum already in place.
Several individual performances also benefited from this visibility. Dwayne Johnson’s nomination for The Smashing Machine feels long overdue, particularly after the film’s Venice premiere generated early buzz. Rose Byrne’s continued presence across nominations suggests momentum building at exactly the right point in the season.
Veteran performances from Julia Roberts, George Clooney, and Adam Sandler found support as well, though the absence of Jay Kelly from the Best Film lineup remains one of the quieter shocks of the ballot.
Where the Globes complicate the Oscar picture
Not every signal from the Globes offers clarity. Wicked: For Good missing Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) is not a small omission, especially with Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo both earning acting nominations. The split between individual recognition and film recognition complicates how the movie enters the next phase of awards season.
Joel Edgerton’s appearance in Best Actor (Drama) for Train Dreams also underscores how the Globes’ genre divisions can blur Oscar forecasting. While the nomination is meaningful, mapping it directly onto Academy voting is never straightforward.
Then there is the Popcorn Award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, which continues to resist easy interpretation. Last year’s win by Wicked: Part I offered little insight into how the category is evaluated, and this year’s field does nothing to clarify the criteria. That said, there’s something oddly satisfying about seeing Avatar: Fire and Ash make the list before it even premiered. No real surprise there, of course, given its $345 million opening weekend, but it’s a reminder that this category often operates on inevitability as much as evidence.
Categories that quietly tell the truth
Some of the most useful insights come from categories that rarely dominate headlines. Best Screenplay, which merges Adapted and Original at the Globes, once again offers a concentrated snapshot of serious contenders. The six-film lineup, including One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Sinners, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and Hamnet, reflects where both critical and industry respect are beginning to converge.
Original Song delivered a different kind of confirmation. Wicked’s two nominations, “No Place Like Home” and “The Girl in the Bubble,” align with expectations and keep the category firmly in play. Jeremy Allen White’s nomination for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere further suggests that a campaign once considered dormant may still have life, buoyed by sustained visibility across mediums.
Final Thoughts
The Golden Globe nominations aren’t a roadmap to March, but they’re a revealing snapshot of a season in motion. The race is more international than expected, One Battle After Another and Sinners remain firmly in control, and Wicked’s position is a lot more complicated than it first seemed.
Most importantly, the new Globes are reshaping the conversation rather than just echoing it. That evolution might not simplify forecasting, but it sure makes this season a whole lot more interesting.
You can explore the full list of 2026 Golden Globe nominations.
