2026 Actor Awards Nomination Predictions Breakdown
The nomination races where margins matter and reputations are on the line.
January 6, 2026 | By Lisa Hatzenbeller
The Screen Actors Guild Awards have a new name, but they still occupy the same position in the awards season ecosystem. Now known as the Actor Awards, this is the only major film awards body voted on entirely by actors, and it remains the largest voting group of the season.
That scale matters. With more than 160,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote in the final round, these nominations tend to clarify the shape of the race rather than complicate it. They show which films and performances have consolidated broad peer support, and which contenders may be louder in conversation than they are in actual ballots.
No category illustrates that influence more consistently than Cast in a Motion Picture. Since SAG began awarding an ensemble prize in 1995, only four Best Picture winners have managed to take the Academy’s top prize without first being nominated here. Since 2009, roughly three-quarters of films nominated for SAG ensemble have also gone on to receive Best Picture nominations. At this stage of the season, simply appearing in this lineup carries meaningful weight.
The acting races function in a similar way. An Actor Awards nomination can determine whether a contender remains viable at all, or whether a performance moves from “in the mix” to something closer to a consensus choice. These are not symbolic nods. They often act as sorting mechanisms.
With nominations set to be announced January 7, this year’s field reflects a combination of major studio releases, performance-driven ensembles, and smaller films that have steadily accumulated support as the season has progressed. What follows are my predictions across the major film categories.
Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture, Predicted Nominees:
• Sinners (Warner Bros.)
• One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
• Marty Supreme (A24)
• Sentimental Value (NEON)
• Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
This year’s ensemble race reflects what the Actor Awards tend to reward best: films that balance star power with clearly defined roles across the entire cast.
Sinners emerges as the strongest ensemble player of the season so far, combining intensity, scale, and a cast that feels essential to the film’s identity rather than ornamental. Every role is active, and that sense of collective purpose is exactly what actors tend to respond to in this category.
One Battle After Another and Marty Supreme represent two different ensemble strengths. One is grounded in shared emotional weight and collective endurance, while the other is built around a central figure supported by sharply drawn surrounding performances. Both approaches fit comfortably within the Actor Awards’ historical preferences.
Sentimental Value continues to benefit from steady word of mouth and a reputation as a film defined by interpersonal dynamics rather than spectacle. Wicked: For Good remains a clear crowd-pleasing contender, driven by its expansive cast and theatrical energy, even as last season’s loss to the more tightly integrated Conclave showed how Actor Awards voters can favor cohesion over scale.
Taken together, this lineup reflects a year where ensemble strength matters just as much as individual standout performances, a familiar but meaningful signal as the Oscar race continues to take shape.
Male Actor in a Lead Role – Motion Picture, Predicted Nominees:
• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Dwyane Johnson, The Smashing Machine
This year’s Lead Actor race is shaped by visibility and timing as much as performance, with established names anchoring films that depend heavily on their central figure.
Timothée Chalamet leads for Marty Supreme, but SAG history complicates the path. No actor has ever won back-to-back Lead Actor prizes, and Chalamet is coming off a win last season for A Complete Unknown, which introduces real resistance even with strong support behind the role.
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) sit comfortably in familiar SAG territory, anchoring their films with authority and visibility rather than surprise.
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) round out the field from very different angles. Hawke benefits from a quieter performance that can gain traction as more voters engage with the film, while Johnson’s candidacy is driven by transformation, heavy makeup and prosthetics, and a dramatic turn that directly challenges long-standing perceptions of his screen persona.
This is a race shaped as much by context as by performance.
Female Actor in a Lead Role – Motion Picture, Predicted Nominees:
• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (locked winner)
• Emma Stone, Bugonia
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
This is the most secure acting category when it comes to the win, but one of the more interesting ones on the nomination side. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) remains firmly out front, and no matter how the lineup shifts, this race still feels like hers to lose.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) feel safely inside the lineup for different reasons. Stone benefits from long-standing trust and visibility, Bugonia showcases another committed performances, even if the film itself is not breaking through broadly elsewhere. While Byrne’s placement reflects strong peer response to a performance that show independent films can compete.
Where I’m taking a bigger swing is in how the rest of the category shapes up. I’m going outside of some critical consensus here, but with the Actor Awards’ massive voting body, I’m betting on Kate Hudson’s comeback performance in Song Sung Blue. This is her strongest work since September 2000 (Almost Famous), and it reads as the kind of career-affirming turn actors often want to recognize.
I also expect the SAG-AFTRA to return to Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good. She was nominated last year, and I think actors respond to the scope of her work across both films, even if the second part is not as critically acclaimed as the first.
At the end of the day, Buckley is the constant here. Everyone else is fighting for a nomination just to breathe the same air as her.
Male Actor in a Supporting Role – Motion Picture, Predicted Nominees:
• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
• Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
• Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård remains the steadiest presence in the category. Sentimental Value continues to be a staple during Awards Season discussion. He delivers the kind of authoritative supporting performance SAG voters love along with a lifetime of other remarkable performances.
Jacob Elordi’s nomination chances may be helped by timing as much as momentum. With final voting closing the day after the Critics’ Choice Awards, late voters were given a fresh reminder of Frankenstein’s visibility and Elordi’s growing standing with actors.
Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn landing together reflects SAG’s comfort nominating multiple performances from the same film when the acting bench is deep and the material supports it. They will both lock nominations, however this could hurt them when it comes to either of them getting a win.
For me, Adam Sandler feels close to a lock here. The acting community has long embraced him, and Jay Kelly gives him one of his strongest dramatic performances, even as the film itself has lost broader awards momentum. I think SAG still wants to recognize Jay Kelly somewhere in this race, and that recognition comes through Sandler, which is why I do not see room for George Clooney in Lead Actor.
Female Actor in a Supporting Role – Motion Picture, Predicted Nominees:
• Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
• Amy Madigan, Weapons
• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
• Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
• Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
This is one of the tightest races on the board, both for nominations and for the eventual win.
Amy Madigan’s position is helped by timing. Again with voting deadlines, her win for Weapons lands at exactly the right moment and should resonate with late voters.
Teyana Taylor stays firmly in the mix on the strength of One Battle After Another’s sheer star power and visibility, which continues to play well with actors even as the race tightens.
Ariana Grande remains my pick at the top. Wicked: For Good continues to register with actors, and her performance has stayed present in this race even if that enthusiasm has not fully translated on the critical side.
Elle Fanning’s placement reflects a broader desire to recognize Sentimental Value. As with the ensemble category, the film’s emotional pull and actor-to-actor appeal keep it present across multiple races.
Emily Blunt is my long shot, but a deliberate one. Actors have always responded to her work, and The Smashing Machine gives her an emotionally grounded performance that could easily break through here. If SAG ends up embracing the film, I think it does so by nominating both Blunt and Dwayne Johnson.
This category feels like a nail-biter across the board, with little separation between contenders and very little room for error on nomination morning, except perhaps for that fifth spot.
Stunt Ensemble, Predicted Nominees:
• Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (locked winner)
• F1: The Movie
• Sinners
• Wicked: For Good
• Ballerina
This category is least volatile, with a clear front-runner and limited room for surprise.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning sits firmly out front. The scope, coordination, and visibility of the stunt work make this the closest thing to a lock in the category.
F1: The Movie lands here because the racing itself functions as the stunt work, with sustained, high-risk sequences that are central to the film’s appeal. Sinners, by contrast, isn’t driven by stunts in the same way, but the physical execution and coordination still register as part of the film’s overall impact, keeping it in contention even if stunt work is not the primary focus.
Ballerina may be the weakest entry in the John Wick universe narratively, but the stunt work remains a clear standout and keeps it firmly in contention here.
And while critics can debate story and pacing, even a 67% Rotten Tomatoes score for Wicked: For Good does nothing to diminish the scale and precision of its stunt work, which remains one of the film’s most undeniable strengths.
With nominations set to be announced, the Actor Awards are doing what they always do best: separating strong contenders from true consensus picks. Some races feel locked, others remain nail-biters, and a few could still surprise.
For full Top 10 rankings in each category, view my Actor Awards Predictions page.
Do you agree with these picks, or is there a nomination you think SAG will surprise us with? Join the conversation on X @OscarObsessADHD.
